Crashes, crises, and calamities : how we can use science to read the early-warning signs / Len Fisher.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting.

Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.