Ecosystem dynamics : from the past to the future / Richard H.W. Bradshaw, University of Liverpool, Martin T. Sykes, Lund University.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Machine generated contents note: 1.Where Are We and How Did We Arrive Here?
1.1.Why this book?
1.2.Ecosystems in crisis
1.3.Relevance of the past
1.4.Forecasting the future
1.5.Chapter details and logic
1.6.For whom is the book intended?
1.7.Four key questions and the links to policy
2.Modelling
2.1.Introduction
2.1.1.How did these models develop?
2.1.2.Climate data, climate and earth system models
2.2.Background ecosystem, vegetation and species models
2.2.1.Vegetation models
2.2.2.Species-level modelling
2.2.3.Equilibrium physiologically-based modelling of species
2.2.4.Statistical equilibrium modelling of species
2.2.5.Some uncertainties and assumptions that apply generally to bioclimatic models
2.2.6.Models of intermediate complexity
2.2.7.Biogeochemistry integrated into equilibrium biome models
2.2.8.Integrating biome and NPP models
2.3.Dynamic modelling
2.3.1.Local to landscape scales: forest gap modelling
Contents note continued: 2.3.2.Regional to global scales: dynamic global vegetation modelling
2.4.Integrating models
2.4.1.Faith system models
2.4.2.Integrated assessment models
2.4.3.Agent-based models
2.5.Further reading
3.Data
3.1.Introduction
3.2.Which data are relevant?
3.3.Ecosystem dynamics: direct observation
3.3.1.Phenology
3.3.2.Biological monitoring
3.4.Ecosystem dynamics: indirect measurement or proxy data
3.4.1.Historical ecology
3.4.2.Palaeoecology
3.4.3.Pollen analysis
3.4.4.Charcoal and fire scars
3.3.Drivers of ecosystem dynamics
3.5.1.Palaeoclimates and greenhouse gases
3.5.2.Human impact on ecosystem dynamics
3.6.Databases
3.7.Gaps in available data and approaches
4.Climate Charge and Millennial Ecosystem Dynamics: A Complex Relationship
4.1.Introduction
4.2.Reconstructing climate from biological data
4.3.The very long records of vegetation dynamics
4.4.Holocene records
Contents note continued: 4.5.Modelling of Holocene vegetation dynamics to help understand pollen data
4.5.1.Climate or people? The Tilia
Fagus transition in Draved Forest, Denmark
4.5.2.Climate or migration biology? The late
Holocene spread of Picea into southern Fennoscandia
4.5.3.Fagus in Europe
4.6.Simulating Fennoscandian Holocene forest dynamics
4.6.1.Holocene dynamics of the Sahara
4.7.Climate and megafaunal extinction
4.7.1.Recent range shifts
4.8.So how important is climate change for future millennial ecosystem dynamics?
5.The Role of Episodic Events in Millennial Ecosystem Dynamics: Where the Wild Strawberries Grow
5.1.Introduction
5.2.Fire
5.2.1.Past to present fire
5.2.2.Present to future fire
5.2.3.Modelling fire
5.2.4.Modelling ignition
5.2.5.Modelling fire spread
5.2.6.Data
model comparison
5.3.Forest pathogens during the Holocene
5.4.Hurricanes and wind damage
5.5.Conclusion
Contents note continued: 6.The Impact of Past and Future Human Exploitation on Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics
6.1.Introduction
6.2.Denmark: case study of human impact during the Holocene
6.3.Islands: sensitive indicators of human impact
6.4.Human influence on Mediterranean, temperate and boreal forests
6.5.The tropics
6.6.Spatial upscaling of the timing and ecosystem consequences of human impact
7.Millennial Ecosystem Dynamics and Their Relationship to Ecosystem Services: Past and Future
7.1.Introduction
7.2.MEA classification
7.2.1.Provisioning services
7.2.2.Regulating services
7.2.3.Cultural services
7.2.4.Supporting services
7.3.The current crisis in ecosystem services
7.3.1.How did we get here? A palaeo perspective
7.3.2.Provisioning services in the past
7.3.3.Regulating services in the past
7.3.4.Cultural services in the past
7.3.5.Supporting services in the past
7.4.Ecosystem services and the future
Contents note continued: 7.5.Relating the maintenance of biodiversity to ecosystem service provision
7.6.Scenarios of possible futures: some different approaches
7.6.1.IPCC Special report on emission scenarios
7.6.2.MEA scenarios
7.6.3.ALARM scenarios
7.7.So what do scenarios say about the possible futures for ecosystem services?
7.7.1.MEA scenarios
7.7.2.SRES scenarios
7.7.3.ALARM scenarios
8.Cultural Ecosystem Services
8.1.Introduction
8.2.Sacred sites and species
8.2.1.Some examples from around the globe
8.3.Cultural landscapes: biodiverse relicts of former land use systems
8.4.Hunting as a cultural ecosystem service
9.Conservation
9.1.Conservation as we know it
9.2.Knowledge of the past: relevance for conservation
9.2.1.Fire history, conservation and ecosystem restoration
9.2.2.Ecosystem restoration
9.2.3.The wood pasture debate
9.2.4.Reference states or baselines?
Contents note continued: 9.3.Conservation in practice: protected areas (Natura 2000)
9.4.Conservation and alien or invasive species
9.4.1.Alien species, climate change and conservation
9.5.Global change, biodiversity and conservation in the future
9.5.1.The Convention on biological diversity
9.5.2.Atlas of biodiversity risk
9.6.Conclusion
10.Where Are We Headed?
10.1.Introduction
10.2.Emergent themes and important underlying concepts
10.2.1.How have ecosystems changed in the past?
10.2.2.How much of this change is attributable to human activities?
10.2.3.How much change is anticipated for the future?
10.2.4.What are the appropriate ecosystem management measures by which to prepare for the future?.

Ecosystem Dynamics focuses on long-term terrestrial ecosystems and their changing relationships with human societies. The unique aspect of this text is the long-time scale under consideration as data and insights from the last 10,000 years are used to place present-day ecosystem status into a temporal perspective and to test models that generate forecasts of future conditions. Descriptions and assessments of some of the current modelling tools that are used, along with their uncertainties and assumptions, are an important feature of this book. An overarching theme explores the dynamic interactions between human societies and ecosystem functioning and services. This book is authoritative but accessible and provides a useful background for all students, practitioners, and researchers interested in the subject.